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Virginia Administrative Code
Title 6. Criminal Justice and Corrections
Agency 15. Department of Corrections
Chapter 81. Standards for Planning, Design, Construction, and Reimbursement of Local Correctional Facilities
4/8/2020

6VAC15-81-220. Specific Jail Population Forecast.

A. The needs assessment shall include a forecast of the future total average daily population as follows:

1. A table of data utilized shall be included in the forecast section and shall be based on a minimum of 60 monthly data points including a description of the timeframes and the unit of analysis.

2. A graph that plots the local responsible inmate and state responsible inmate population separately and a table with the calculation of the percent local responsible and state responsible population during the period of analysis presented in the forecast data base.

3. A calculation of the average percent of the local responsible inmates and state responsible inmates in the total jail population including state responsible inmates greater than 90 days as reported by State Compensation Board.

4. The results of the preliminary population data analysis such as trends and correlation structure.

5. A presentation of three to five forecasts (the specification, parameters, and diagnostic information from each model) selected from any of the following models:

a. Linear regression analysis.

b. Exponential smoothing models.

c. Autoregressive integrated moving average models.

d. Structural forecasting models (multiple regression analysis).

e. Other forecasting models preapproved by the reviewing authority.

6. The forecast shall exclude the ADP of detainees:

a. Held for other localities (includes those held for payment, by courtesy, or for exchange) for jurisdictions not participating in a jointly operated or regional jail, or held in a single jurisdiction jail.

b. Held for federal authorities.

c. Contract inmates.

d. Held for out-of-state authorities (non-state warrant).

B. The needs assessment shall include a forecast consisting of:

1. A year-by-year forecast based on the projected year of occupancy plus a minimum of 10 years.

2. A test of the model selected demonstrating its ability to forecast the most recent year's population.

3. The presentation of a forecast based on one of the models and the discussion of why it was selected for the jail project.

4. An additional 10-year estimate in yearly increments (based on the year of occupancy plus 20 years) for use in estimating the facility support service areas needs in the planning study. For new facilities if future expansion is anticipated, consideration shall be given to increasing support services areas by 50% to accommodate future expansion.

C. The needs assessment shall include the impact of state responsible prisoner population in local jails for each of the last five calendar or fiscal years.

1. The year-to-year growth trend for the state responsible felon population.

2. The percentage of the total for which state responsible population accounted.

3. The mean, median, and mode state responsible population.

D. The needs assessment shall include a report for the last calendar or fiscal year:

1. Separately, the number of inmates committed to jail solely for a probation violation (confinement awaiting probation revocation hearing) or for a parole violation (confinement awaiting parole revocation hearing).

2. The total prisoner days and a calculation of the ADP, separately, for each of the two confinement categories listed in subdivision 1 of this subsection.

3. The total prisoner days or monthly ADP for all state responsible felon inmates calculated from the date of final sentencing to release or transfer to the Department of Corrections.

Statutory Authority

§§ 53.1-5, 53.1-80, and 53.1-82 of the Code of Virginia.

Historical Notes

Derived from Volume 34, Issue 12, eff. March 8, 2018.

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